Doom and Gloom

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Doom and Gloom
More bad news from the BBC and dull Financial Speculations by me.
12/11/08

Despite the nation's hopes that a recession can be averted, and the government's efforts to prevent one, it's no surprise that the media are doing everything they can to increase people's monetary anxiety, and bring on a recession all the faster (Hopefully they can think of a snappier name for it). I'm not going to look into it, but I daresay that the media is one of the few industries that does not generally suffer during financial depressions.

As one frequently finds oneself saying these days, the BBC should know better, but of course they don't. Today's insight is that Christmas sales are going to fall 7 percent on last year, based on a survey which asked people how much they planned to spend. The biggest anticipated falls were on socialising. I'm no financial expert, and nor do I carry out surveys, or report on them, as a rule, but if I had been given this survey to carry out, I'd have added a few more questions:
1) How much did you plan to spend on Christmas presents last year?
2) How much did you spend?
3) How much did you plan to spend on Socialising last year?
4) How much did you spend?
5) How many years in a row have you intended to spend less in December than you did last year?
6) Have you ever been successful?
7) How many people do you know who are capable of sticking to a budget, regardless of financial constraints?

The last question might be speculative, but if most people are anything like me and all the other people I know, then the answer is 'very few'.
I am reasonably confident that I have generally spent around half as much again as I planned to every December since the dawn of time (or around 1990 when I was obliged to begin spending my own money). I have usually intended to decrease my spending by 20 - 30 percent, but gone at least 50 percent over budget. As for socialising, Christmas or not, I almost always over spend.

I am sure that the usual bombardment of retail marketing will be able to tempt people to spend more than 7 percent over their budgets, since getting people to spend more than they intend to is how retailers make all their money, believe it or not.

Internet retailers have already reported increases in sales in October compared to last year. It's pretty much a given that each year more people will seek bargains and convenience online and in supermarkets, and high street shops may suffer as a result, but that doesn't mean people will spend less - they will just buy more stuff for the same amount of money, or slightly more.

Based on the research I have carried out (none), I estimated that if people intend to spend 7 percent less, they are likely to spend at least 5 percent more than last year, which if nothing else will be in line with inflation. Even if people buy the same amount of stuff as they did last year, the increased cost of importing goods and therefore of retail prices means that they will automatically have to spend more money.

Still, it's better to be miserable.

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Comments about This Article

I just did, cock sucker. Comment By: God, 20 Nov 2008, Rating: 5/5

Update your sodding blog! Comment By: Jesus, 20 Nov 2008, Rating: 5/5

I tend to save money as it is my birthday, so I tend to use some of my birthday money that dad gives me to get a token for mum. Comment By: Jesus Christ, 12 Nov 2008, Rating: 5/5

I'll be saving money this Christmas by becoming a Jehovah Witness.....Now would anyone like to buy a copy of Watchtower? Comment By: Smokey Earl, 12 Nov 2008, Rating: 4/5

I plan to save money this Christmas by firstly deciding on a budget, then dividing the money between the people I need to by for. Instead of using the money to buy gifts I will just give it to them in cash. It will be a good way of using up those 1 and 2 pence pieces that I've been keeping in that whisky bottle tube. Comment By: Mean Chris, 12 Nov 2008, Rating: 5/5

Remember, say my name 3 times into the mirror and I shall appear. Comment By: Gordon Brown, 12 Nov 2008, Rating: 5/5

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